Difference between potential and actual payout

Introduction

In marketing materials, slot providers focus on "maximum potential" (× 5,000, × 10,000 and above), but real wins are significantly lower than these figures. The reason is the fundamental difference between the theoretical possibility and the probabilistic distribution of payments in short and medium-term sessions. Let's analyze the basic concepts and practical methods of assessment.

1. Theoretical potential: what underlies the stated figure

1. Max Win

The sum of all potential payments for one bet within all bonus and main functions.

2. Generator model (RNG)

Based on the mathematical model, each combination of events has a finite probability; the maximum gain is one of the rarest.

3. Calculation of RTP and House Edge

• \text{RTP} = \sum_{i} P_i \times W_i,
• \quad
• \text{House Edge} = 1 - \text{RTP}
• $$

where $ P _ i $ is the probability of the event, $ W _ i $ is the multiplier. The declared potential is included in the sum of these terms, but with an extremely small $ P _ i $.

2. Real payout: Expectation math and variability

1. Expectation (EV)

• \mathrm{EV} = S \times \frac{\mathrm{RTP}}{100},
• $$

where $ S $ is the rate. EV shows the average return on an infinite sample of spins, but does not guarantee a specific result within a single session.

2. Standard Deviation (σ)

A measure of the spread of payouts around the EV. The higher the volatility, the higher the σ, and the longer periods of deviations from EV can last.

3. Confidence interval

• $$
• \mathrm{SE} = \frac{σ}{\sqrt{N}},
• \quad
• 95%\text{CI} = \mathrm{EV} \pm 1{,}96 \times \mathrm{SE}.
• $$

Highly volatile slots would require a million spins to make the SE noticeably small.

3. What determines the gap between potential and real

1. Volatility

High: rare, but very large winnings (the maximum may fall, but almost never).

Low: frequent small payments, limited potential.

2. Bonus hit frequency

The less often the bonus round with large multipliers starts, the less often you approach the declared maximum.

3. Spin sample size

Short session (up to 1,000 spins): real results can deviate tens of percent from RTP.

Long session (100,000 + spins): real data is closer to EV, but even there the chance of maximum remains negligible.

4. Rate conditions

Low rates increase the relative multiplier but do not change the probabilities; a high bid only scales the winnings.

4. Empirical verification of the declared potential

1. Demo mode testing

Simulate 100,000-1,000,000 spins at minimum bid.

Record the maximum fixed multiplier, average multiplier and percentage hit in the bonus.

2. Bonus Buy, Hold & Win

Buy a bonus round 100-200 times: calculate the average multiplier, compare with marketing data.

3. Maintain session statistics

Take into account not only the winnings, but also the duration of the session, the number of bonuses, absolute and relative profits.

4. Comparison with auditor reports

Providers with eCOGRA/GLI publish test reports: check your data with the official PDF.

5. How to avoid the illusion of "overestimated" potential

1. Do not focus on the "maximum" figure

Always look at the average and median payout per 1,000 spins.

2. Study volatility

Providers often specify a volatility category between 1 and 5; choose the level that matches your bankroll.

3. Winning frequency

Slot with low volatility often give "hits" (20-30%), but highs × 100- × 500.

Highly volatile - "hits" 5-10%, potential × 1,000 - × 5,000.

4. RTP Distribution

For slots with high potential, part of RTP goes to small frequent payments, the rest goes to the minimum jackpot stream.

6. Slot Selection Best Practices

1. Define the purpose of the session

Jackpot Hunt (high volatility, RTP ≥ 95%)

Marathon (low/medium volatility, RTP ≥ 96%)

2. Set the sample size

Plan for 5,000 to 50,000 spins in high volatility to lower SE.

3. Stop loss and break profit

Limit losses of 10-20% from bankroll, fix profits when reaching 50 - 100% growth.

4. Combine slots

Change high volatility to low volatility every 500-1,000 spins to "withdraw" from strong deviations.

5. Review auditor reports

Give preference to providers with open PDF reports on RTP and extreme payments.

Conclusion

The maximum declared potential is only the theoretical upper limit of payments, and the real payment is determined by the probability distribution, volatility and the number of spins. For a balanced decision, focus on EV, σ, bonus frequency and empirical results in demo mode. A balanced strategy of "hunting" and "marathon" will allow you to optimally use the declared capabilities of the slot without waiting for a "single miracle spin."